Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts
Annie DukePoker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
9780735216358
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest...
Life is poker, not chess
Wanna bet?
Bet to learn: fielding the unfolding future
The buddy system
Dissent to win
Adventures in mental time travel.
🐢 Descargas lentas
Las descargas gratuitas ilimitadas son accesibles a través de nuestra lista de espera, un sistema diseñado para dar a todos un acceso justo.
🚀 Descargas rápidas
🚀 Descargas rápidas Conviértete en miembro para apoyar la preservación a largo plazo de libros, artículos y más. Para mostrar nuestra gratitud por tu apoyo obtienes descargas rápidas. ❤️
Total de descargas:
-
Necesitará un lector de ebooks o PDF para abrir el archivo, dependiendo del formato del archivo.
Lectores de ebooks recomendados: ReadEra y Calibre -
Utilice herramientas en línea para convertir entre formatos.
Herramientas de conversión recomendadas: CloudConvert -
Puede enviar archivos PDF y EPUB a su Kindle o Kobo eReader.
Herramientas recomendadas: “Enviar a Kindle” de Amazon y “Enviar a Kobo/Kindle” de djazz
Betting to Win : A Professional Guide to Profitable Betting
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams
Drawing on academic research, this book explains the various betting forums and techniques available to aid a professional betting strategy for all levels of punters. It covers the wide variety of fixed-odds markets across the world, but also spread betting, pari-mutuel, and Tote betting, and focuses also on the recent explosion of interest in person-to-person betting exchanges.
Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger, 3rd Edition
eter Bevelin begins his fascinating book with Confucius' great wisdom: "A man who has committed a mistake and doesn't correct it, is committing another mistake." Seeking Wisdom is the result of Bevelin's learning about attaining wisdom. His quest for wisdom originated partly from making mistakes himself and observing those of others but also from the philosophy of super-investor and Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charles Munger. A man whose simplicity and clarity of thought was unequal to anything Bevelin had seen. In addition to naturalist Charles Darwin and Munger, Bevelin cites an encyclopedic range of thinkers: from first-century BCE Roman poet Publius Terentius to Mark Twain-from Albert Einstein to Richard Feynman-from 16th Century French essayist Michel de Montaigne to Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett. In the book, he describes ideas and research findings from many different fields. This book is for those who love the constant search for knowledge. It is in the spirit of Charles Munger, who says, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there." There are roads that lead to unhappiness. An understanding of how and why we can "die" should help us avoid them. We can't eliminate mistakes, but we can prevent those that can really hurt us. Using exemplars of clear thinking and attained wisdom, Bevelin focuses on how our thoughts are influenced, why we make misjudgments and tools to improve our thinking. Bevelin tackles such eternal...
Made to Stick : Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die
Chip; Heath, Dan Heath, Chip Heath, Dan Heath
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The instant classic about why some ideas thrive, why others die, and how to make your ideas stick. “Anyone interested in influencing others—to buy, to vote, to learn, to diet, to give to charity or to start a revolution—can learn from this book.”— The Washington Post Mark Twain once observed, “A lie can get halfway around the world before the truth can even get its boots on.” His observation rings true: Urban legends, conspiracy theories, and bogus news stories circulate effortlessly. Meanwhile, people with important ideas—entrepreneurs, teachers, politicians, and journalists—struggle to make them “stick.” In Made to Stick , Chip and Dan Heath reveal the anatomy of ideas that stick and explain ways to make ideas stickier, such as applying the human scale principle, using the Velcro Theory of Memory, and creating curiosity gaps. Along the way, we discover that sticky messages of all kinds—from the infamous “kidney theft ring” hoax to a coach’s lessons on sportsmanship to a vision for a new product at Sony—draw their power from the same six traits. Made to Stick will transform the way you communicate. It’s a fast-paced tour of success stories (and failures): the Nobel Prize-winning scientist who drank a glass of bacteria to prove a point about stomach ulcers; the charities who make use of the Mother Teresa Effect; the elementary-school teacher whose simulation actually prevented racial prejudice. Provocative, eye-opening, and often...
Mastermind : How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes
No fictional character is more renowned for his powers of thought and observation than Sherlock Holmes. But is his extraordinary intellect merely a gift of fiction, or can we learn to cultivate these abilities ourselves, to improve our lives at work and at home?We can, says psychologist and journalist Maria Konnikova, and in Mastermind she shows us how. Beginning with the "brain attic"--Holmes's metaphor for how we store information and organize knowledge--Konnikova unpacks the mental strategies that lead to clearer thinking and deeper insights. Drawing on twenty-first-century neuroscience and psychology, Mastermind explores Holmes's unique methods of ever-present mindfulness, astute observation, and logical deduction. In doing so, it shows how each of us, with some self-awareness and a little practice, can employ these same methods to sharpen our perceptions, solve difficult problems, and enhance our creative powers. For Holmes aficionados and casual readers alike, Konnikova reveals how the world's most keen-eyed detective can serve as an unparalleled guide to upgrading the mind.Review"Ingenious...thoughtful...covers a wide variety of material clearly and organizes it well." (The Wall Street Journal)"Steven Pinker meets Sir Arthur Conan Doyle in this entertaining, insightful look at how the fictional London crime-solver used sophisticated mental strategies to solve complex problems of logic and detection...practical, enjoyable book, packed with modern science." (The...
How to fail at almost everything and still win big : kind of the story of my life
Scott Adams has likely failed at more things than anyone you’ve ever met or anyone you’ve even heard of. So how did he go from hapless office worker and serial failure to the creator of Dilbert, one of the world’s most famous syndicated comic strips, in just a few years? In How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big, Adams shares the strategy he has used since he was a teen to invite failure in, to embrace it, then pick its pocket. No career guide can offer advice for success that works for everyone. As Adams explains, your best bet is to study the ways of others who made it big and try to glean some tricks and strategies that make sense for you. Adams pulls back the covers on his own unusual life and shares what he learned for turning one failure after another into something good and lasting. Adams reveals that he failed at just about everything he’s tried, including his corporate career, his inventions, his investments, and his two restaurants. But there’s a lot to learn from his personal story, and a lot of humor along the way. While it’s hard for anyone to recover from a personal or professional failure, Adams discovered some unlikely truths that helped to propel him forward. For instance:• Goals are for losers. Systems are for winners.• "Passion" is bull. What you need is personal energy.• A combination of mediocre skills can make you surprisingly valuable.• You can manage your odds in a way that makes you look lucky to others.
The Organized Mind : Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload
New York Times #160;bestselling author and neuroscientist Daniel J. Levitin shifts his keen insights from your brain on music to your brain in a sea of details. The information age is drowning us with an unprecedented deluge of data. At the same time, were expected to make moreand fasterdecisions about our lives than ever before. No wonder, then, that the average American reports frequently losing car keys or reading glasses, missing appointments, and feeling worn out by the effort required just to keep up. But somehow some people become quite accomplished at managing information flow. In#160; The Organized Mind , Daniel J. Levitin, PhD, uses the latest brain science to demonstrate how those people exceland how readers can use their methods to regain a sense of mastery over the way they organize their homes, workplaces, and time. With lively, entertaining chapters on everything from the kitchen junk drawer to health care to executive office workflow, Levitin reveals how new research into the cognitive neuroscience of attention and memory can be applied to the challenges of our daily lives.#160; This Is Your Brain on Music #160;showed how to better play and appreciate music through an understanding of how the brain works.#160; The Organized Mind #160;shows how to navigate the churning flood of information in the twenty-first century with the same neuroscientific perspective
The art of thinking clearly : better thinking, better decision
An exploration of human reasoning reveals how to recognize and avoid simple errors in our day-to-day thinking in order to transform the decision-making process.
Originals : How Non-Conformists Move the World
Denaker, Susan;grant, Adam;sandberg, Sheryl;sanders, Fred
****“Reading __Originals__ made me feel like I was seated across from Adam Grant at a dinner party, as one of my favorite thinkers thrilled me with his insights and his wonderfully new take on the world.” —Malcolm Gladwell, #1 __New York Times__ bestselling author of __Outliers__ and __The Tipping Point__“__Originals__ is one of the most important and captivating books I have ever read, full of surprising and powerful ideas.It will not only change the way you see the world; it might just change the way you live your life. And it could very well inspire you to change your world.” —Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook and #1 __New York Times__ bestselling author of __Lean In__The __New York Times__ bestselling author of __Give and Take__ examines how people can champion new ideas—and how leaders can encourage originality in their organizations**** With __Give and Take__, Adam Grant not only introduced a landmark new paradigm for success but also established himself as one of his generation’s most compelling and provocative thought leaders. In __Originals__ he again addresses the challenge of improving the world, but now from the perspective of becoming original: choosing to champion novel ideas and values that go against the grain, battle conformity, and buck outdated traditions. How can we originate new ideas, policies, and practices without risking it all? Using surprising studies and stories spanning business, politics, sports, and entertainment, Grant...
Ray Dalio 3 Books Collection Set (Principles Life and Work [Hardcover], Principles for Success [Hardcover], Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises)
**“Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —__The New York Times__****Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals.**In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to __Fortune__ magazine. Dalio himself has been named to __Time__ magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In __Principles,__ Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood...
The art of thinking in systems : improve your logic, think more critically, and use proven systems to solve your problems - strategic planning for everyday life
Would you like to have better solutions to your problems? Struggling to understand why things went wrong when you did everything right? The Art Of Thinking In Systems can help you with these problems. You think systems thinking is for politicians, and big company CEO’s? Let me tell you this: a small business is a system, your class at school is a system, your family is a system. You are the element of larger systems – your town, your country, the world. These systems have a different dynamic. The more you know about their nature, the more optimal solutions you’ll find to problems related to them. Systems thinking helps you see beyond simple connections, and find strategic solutions considering every actor influencing your problem. The Art Of Thinking In Systems presents the fundamental system archetypes, models, and methods with an application to real life. Know how to use systems thinking at work, in your business, in your relationship, friendships. The book also helps you to see through the hidden pathways of contemporary politics, economics, and education changes. Systems thinking opens new and exciting ways to re-invigorate your world view. It enriches your critical thinking skill, analyzing ability, clears your vision, makes you more logical and rational – just to mention a few benefits. Systems thinking’s aim is not to overcomplicate your thoughts but to find better solutions to your problems. Some things in life can’t be fixed with a simple “you did this so I did...
The confidence game : the psychology of the con and why we fall for it every time
Maria-Konnikova, Maria Konnikova
BRAND NEW, Exactly same ISBN as listed, Please double check ISBN carefully before ordering.
Poor Charlie's Almanack : The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger, Expanded Third Edition
Charles T. Munger, Peter D. Kaufman, Ed Wexler, Warren E. Buffett
EXPANDED THIRD EDITION includes Charlie's 2007 USC Law School Commencement address. Edited by Peter D. Kaufman. Brand New.
Mastering The Market Cycle : Getting the Odds on Your Side
**The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets.**We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result.If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed.By following Marks’s insights — drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients — you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.
对赌 : 信息不足时如何做出高明决策 = Think in bets
总有些时刻面临关键决策。在这个充满不确定性的时代,我们在决策时时常面临信息不足、不理性和盲从的局面。一旦决策错误,就要用更长时间来为之买单。我们需要专业的决策课。本书作者安妮•杜克是认知心理学博士,同时也是传奇职业扑克手。获得过世界扑克系列赛大笔奖金的她明白:职业扑克手就是职业决策者。在信息不足时,扑克手需要在两分钟内做出20个决策,本质上像一场又一场的决策实验。杜克融合心理科学和扑克高手实战经验,总结出了对赌思维。她为许多世界500强高管提供决策咨询,帮助他们放弃对确定性不切实际的追求,更好地评估事实,优选决策方案。《对赌:信息不足时如何做出高明决策》通过许多生动的案例,介绍了一套人人都可以采用的、强大(但易于操作)的方法。它让你了解决策背后是概率选择,真正关注决策质量而不以结果论成败;让你破除心理上的自利性偏差,让你在情绪不稳的情况下及时退出止损。培养了科学的认知习惯后,加上各种思维工具的有效运用,如同伴制的求真团体和心理时间旅行法等,最终建立你强大且完整的科学决策系统。《对赌:信息不足时如何做出高明决策》将重塑你的科学决策系统,使你成为自信镇定的人生出牌者,最终在长期博弈中,成为胜者。
Mental Models : 30 thinking tools that separate the average from the exceptional. Improved decision - makeing, logical analysis, and problem-solving
30 Practical and applicable guidelines to think smarter, faster, and with expert insight (even if you aren't one). Mental models are like giving a treasure map to someone lost in the woods. They provide instant understanding, context, and most importantly, a path to the end destination . Now imagine having such a map for all problems and decisions in your life. Battle information overwhelm, focus on what really matters, and make complex decisions with speed and confidence. Mental Models: 30 Thinking Tools sheds light on true intelligence: it's not about knowledge and knowing the capitals of all the countries in the world. It's about how you think , and each mental model is a specific framework on how to think smart and with insight. You can approach the world by trying to analyze each piece of information separately, or you can learn mental models that do the work for you. Learn how billionaires/CEOs, Olympic athletes, and scientists think differently and avoid mistakes. Peter Hollins has studied psychology and peak human performance for over a dozen years and is a bestselling author. He has worked with a multitude of individuals to unlock their potential and path towards success. His writing draws on his academic, coaching, and research experience.
The Complete Guide to Sports Betting: The six key betting principles that professional bettors use to ensure profit at the sports book.
2019-10-13
The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts
Farnam Street, Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien
The old saying goes, ''To the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.'' But anyone who has done any kind of project knows a hammer often isn't enough. The more tools you have at your disposal, the more likely you'll use the right tool for the job - and get it done right. The same is true when it comes to your thinking. The quality of your outcomes depends on the mental models in your head. And most people are going through life with little more than a hammer. Until now. The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, productivity, and how clearly you see the world. You will discover what forces govern the universe and how to focus your efforts so you can harness them to your advantage, rather than fight with them or worse yet- ignore them. Upgrade your mental toolbox and get the first volume today. AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY Farnam Street (FS) is one of the world's fastest growing websites, dedicated to helping our readers master the best of what other people have already figured out. We curate, examine and explore the timeless ideas and mental models that history's brightest minds have used to live lives of purpose. Our readers include students, teachers, CEOs, coaches,...